10 Insights I Learned from Analyzing the 2024 Women’s Fiction Debut Deals
'90s Nostalgia, Feminist Rage, and The Most Frequently Used Comp Titles
Guess what, friends? I don’t only geek out on writing and books and creativity, but I’m also a total data nerd. But only for things like writing and books and creativity. I didn’t always know that about myself, but when I got my masters in sociology I discovered that data content analyses is very similar (and, to me, just as fun!) as analyzing a story. I love looking for patterns and themes to see what the bigger picture is.
So, why tell you this? Because I’ve spent the last month analyzing the 2024 women’s fiction debut publishing deals, and I’d love to share some of the insights I’ve gleaned from this content analysis.
I chose to focus on debut titles since most of the writers I work with are still hoping to get their first publishing deal, and there are different criteria for unpublished (and therefore unproven) writers than for a published author who’s already demonstrated some success.
You might be wondering why this even matters, or even if I’m suggesting you write to current trends. (No, definitely not the latter. You need to write the story that speaks to you or you will never be able to make it meaningful for your reader!) But if you’re interested in the traditional publishing path, it can be helpful to understand the current publishing landscape. Remember publishing timelines can be long so what you see on the bookstore shelves right now may not be what an agent or publisher is currently interested in.
Here are a few people who may find this info helpful…
Aspiring women’s fiction writers who…
have a work-in-progress and want to better understand the sometimes confusing women’s fiction genre;
or are getting ready to pitch agents and are curious which comp titles are piquing interest and which may be overused;
or are curious if there are recent acquisitions that sound similar to their own work-in-progress so they can see who the agent is
Aspiring or veteran women’s fiction writers who are toying with a new story idea and are wondering how it might fit into what’s currently in demand
Women’s fiction readers who want to know what’s coming down the pike!
Okay, let’s dig in!
The Insights
In 2024, there were 403 debut fiction deals reported to Publishers Marketplace. (Note: See below for further information on how I defined women’s fiction as well as methodology details.) I narrowed the 2024 fiction debut deals down to 164 final titles that met the criteria for women’s fiction. Of these, nearly one-third (46 total) were published by independent publishers with the remaining 118 published by a Big 5 publisher or one of their imprints.
As personal growth and relationships are signature elements of women’s fiction, I first took a look at how that broke down in the 2024 debut deals: family dynamics (32 debuts) with marital issues (14 debuts), sisterly relationships (11 debuts) and mother/daughter relationships (10 debuts) as the most prevalent variations, death and grief (27 debuts), friendship (22 debuts), romantic themes (20 debuts) (not to be confused with romance stories, which are, of course, their own category), and coming-of-age stories (19 debuts).
Here are 10 more insights I gleaned by analyzing the 2024 women’s fiction publishing deals…
Bring on the 80s and 90s! Books set in recent “history” are becoming more popular.
An increasing number of titles are set in decades that don’t yet make the cut for historical fiction (i.e., more than 50 years ago), with two women’s fiction debut titles set in the aughts, five set in the 1990s; four set in the 1980s; and four set in the 1970s. For context I also looked at all fiction (beyond women’s fiction and debuts) as well as the 2023 debut data, and we seem to be on an overall upward trend. The easiest way to share this info is in a table, so here you go…
With Gen X’s nostalgia for our younger years, I imagine this is a trend we will continue to see, especially as it’s showing up in other genres as well. (Note on the data: Sometimes one title spanned multiple decades so it was counted in each decade.)
Of course, historical fiction (i.e., older than 50 years) continues to be a favorite women’s fiction subgenre. There were 20 women’s fiction debut titles with a historical setting in addition to the more recently set titles discussed above. Although these recent decades seem most popular right now, the 1960s (4 debuts) and fifties (2 debuts) show up as well as titles set in the 19th century.
Magical realism and time travel continue to be popular in women’s fiction. A total of 17 women’s fiction debut titles have elements of magical realism, with time travel popping up 7 times. This won’t come as a surprise to anyone who’s researched women’s fiction agents, as magical realism is on many an agent’s manuscript wishlist.
Stories inspired by real people especially if they’re pioneers of a sort. Eight women’s fiction debuts were inspired by real-life people doing interesting things especially for the first time. Take, for example, Edmonia Lewis, a 19th-century sculptor who became one of the most celebrated Black female artists of her time, or Ada Coleman, the American Bar's first female bartender.
Women’s fiction stories set in NYC (10 debuts), the South (8 debuts) or California (7 debuts) continue to be prevalent, but we’re also seeing other U.S. regions get some love. Six women’s fiction debuts are set in the midwest, and 5 are set in the American West (with 3 in Utah). And 11 stories draw on a rural or small town background. There are plenty of stories set outside the U.S., too, with London or England (10 debuts) popping up most frequently.
Books that let us read about what we like to watch. Workplace (13 debuts) is another popular story setting and the most popular story workplace? TV and the film industry (9 debuts) with four of those focused on reality TV. Another reflection of our times…five stories highlight main characters who are influencers. Other popular story settings include university (5 debuts), in nature (4 debuts) or weddings (3 debuts).
Writers writing about writers and writing. Authors, writers, editors and the publishing industry in general continue to be at the center of women’s fiction stories with 9 women’s fiction debuts featuring writer protag or the publishing industry. Relatedly, artist main characters (6 debuts) are also popular.
Stories centering the experiences of underrepresented voices1 including:
LGBTQ protagonists (14 debut titles), with Call Me By Your Name and Detransition, Baby each comped twice in women’s fic debuts
Black protagonists (7 debut titles)
AAPI protagonists (4 debut titles)
Jewish protagonist or Jewish culture (2 debut titles)
Feminist rage is, well, all the rage. Stories that highlight resistance to the patriarchy, gender inequity, and/or women who take matters of misogyny into their own hands are gaining traction. (And I hope we continue to see women claiming their voices in this way!) With some synopses highlighting feminist rage or patriarchy (6 debuts) and titles specifically labeled feminist stories (2 debuts). Unsurprisingly some of these stories also contain themes of violence against women including domestic abuse (5 debuts) or sexual assault (2 debuts).
Everyone wants the next YellowFace, The Midnight Library, or Remarkably Bright Creatures. Popular title or author comps mentioned in 2024 deal announcements include: YellowFace or R.F. Kuang (2 in women’s fic debut and 9 overall deals); The Midnight Library and/or Matt Haig (2 in women’s fic debut and 9 overall deals); Remarkably Bright Creatures (2 in women’s fic debut and 5 overall deals); Tomorrow, and Tomorrow, and Tomorrow or Gabrielle Zevin (2 in women’s fic debuts and 5 overall deals); This Time Tomorrow or Emma Straub (2 in women’s fic debut and 4 overall deals); or Lauren Groff (2 in women’s fic debut and 3 overall deals). Don’t forget you don’t always have to limit yourself to books when comping: Fleabag or Phoebe Waller-Bridges showed up in three women’s fiction comps. (Although I do recommend at least one of your comps is a book title.)
Are you eager for more info? Get access to all of my data here, including title, author, summary, genre, comp titles, key themes, publishers, target and actual pub dates and more. This gives you the opportunity to do your own analysis or just familiarize yourself with upcoming titles, typical publishing timelines, and which publishers are acquiring which stories.
About This Content Analysis
This is not an analysis of all publishing deals in 2024; rather only those that were debut titles, fit into women’s fiction criteria (see more on this below), and were announced in Publishers Marketplace. As most of this analysis is based on the released details at the time of the acquisition announcement, there is limited info available.
Content analysis is qualitative rather than quantitative and, therefore, not an exact science; many themes can be subject to interpretation. As this was a manual analysis conducted by one human (me!), there is also certainly the possibility of calculation error. This is not meant to be exact, but rather provide general insights.
One more note, I recognize there are some issues with only calling out certain racial identities (e.g., Black or Asian) since this perpetuates the myth that white is the default. However, as many of these titles have been categorized by the publisher in this manner, and I believe it’s important to amplify these stories, I have chosen to follow suit. If an underrepresented voice was not highlighted by the publisher in the announcement or marketing details (when available), then the story would not have been counted as such.
How Do You Define Women’s Fiction Anyway?
In July 2022, Publishers Marketplace (PM) announced they were retiring the category of women’s fiction, leaving options for commercial, literary, or even romance in its stead. I work with writers who write women’s fiction (which is still sought by agents and still exists as a BISAC category) so it was important to me to understand which women’s fiction manuscripts were being acquired. To address this in my analysis since it wasn’t specifically called out by PM, I used a variety of criteria to determine which stories met the most commonly accepted definition. We could have many discussions on how to define women’s fiction, as there are a lot of opinions on what it is (and if it should even be a genre at all). However, I don’t want to get off track right now. Though it’s a bit murky, this is the criteria I used to make the determination:
Story centers on a female protagonist who undergoes a personal growth journey2
Publisher selected women’s fiction as the primary marketing category or the primary BISAC code if marketing data was already released on Edelweiss, the bookseller software where publishers upload title marketing data. (Note this did not eliminate titles where publishers did not select this, as many subgenres can fall into this category as well.)
Stories could include a single protagonist or an ensemble cast of characters.
I did not include titles that seemed to fall distinctly into genre fiction such as horror, fantasy, or thriller. However, there may be genre-blending titles that were included.
If the story clearly meets the definition of a romance (i.e., primary story question is centered on if couple gets together), I excluded it UNLESS the publisher categorized it as women’s fiction in the BISAC codes.
If I was unsure whether to exclude a title based on the limited info available, I erred on the side of inclusion. Admittedly if I had more time to carefully and individually analyze each as well as a full book to analyze, I might make a different call. But in the interest of getting the info out in a timely manner based on the available info, I had to make judgment calls rather quickly.
Methodology
I began with a pool of 403 deals categorized as fiction debut between January 1 and December 31, 2024, and reviewed each announcement to determine if they met the above criteria. I built a table with relevant data including title, author, summary, any titles comped to, target pub date, and publisher. I cross-referenced each title in Edelweiss to see if the title was categorized as women’s fiction by the publisher and included this info when available. Sometimes the data was not available because the publisher has not yet uploaded it. Sometimes the publisher categorized the title as, for example, literary, however, if it met all other criteria I included it since this kind of categorization is open to interpretation and the info would be relevant for my authors. I additionally added the actual publication dates when available.
I categorized each publisher as Big 5, Big 5 imprint, or independent (which includes small presses and university presses) so the breakdown of these could be easily determined.
I then analyzed each summary entry for keywords and themes, and then analyzed this data for repeating patterns.
Did you miss the download button above? Click here to get a pdf version of this post as well as the full spreadsheet for the 2024 women’s fiction debut deals.
Heather Garbo is a book coach, editor and writer with a background in communications, book publishing, and nonprofit work. Heather specializes in working with women’s fiction writers who are discovering (or rediscovering) their writing voice in midlife. Find her at www.garbobookcoaching.com.
Note: I could only count this if it was specifically called out in the announcement.
Women’s Fiction Writers Association defines women’s fiction as “layered stories in which the plot is driven by the main character’s emotional journey.” Many, including WFWA, do not insist on a female protagonist to qualify as women’s fiction. However, a female protag is most common and, as it was difficult to otherwise determine with the limited available data, I chose to adhere to the female protag as a criterion.
interesting! Thanks for sharing!
Fascinating! Thanks for sharing!